China's economic operation is generally stable: data has fluctuations, fundamentals have not changed.

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the latest data on the national economy in July.

Overall, the current Chinese economy has maintained a generally stable, stable, and stable development trend. However, fluctuations in some individual data in the areas of investment, consumption, and employment have also attracted attention.

In this regard, experts pointed out that the high base in the previous period, seasonal factors, active adjustment structure, etc. will have a certain impact on short-term economic data, so it is necessary to treat this change rationally.

From the trend change and macro perspective, the fluctuation of short-term data is normal and does not affect the fundamentals of China's stable economy.

Investment structure is more important than speed

Investment growth has always been an important indicator of economic performance. From January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 355.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the first half of the year.

"On the one hand, the slowdown in investment growth and the steady operation of the economy itself reflect the enhancement of the endogenous power of China's economy and the reduction of investment dependence; on the other hand, the excessive base in the previous period also means the same investment increment. The growth rate will be lower. At the same time, de-leverage is necessary to prevent and resolve economic risks. However, in some places, there are simplifications in the process of implementation, which will form investment in some enterprises and local governments to a certain extent. Impact." Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, told this reporter.

In the view of Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, the improvement of the investment structure is more worthy of attention. More detailed data shows that from January to July, manufacturing investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month. Manufacturing investment growth rate continued to rise for four consecutive months; private investment increased by 8.8%, also for two consecutive years. The month rebounded slightly. "The rebound in the growth rate of manufacturing and private investment shows that the investment structure is optimized, and the endogenous dynamic structure is also improving." Liu Aihua said.

Analysts believe that in the stage of high-quality development, the direction and structure of investment are more important than speed. Simply expanding investment, economic and social benefits will not be high.

In fact, another set of data also proves that today's investment is more focused on quality and efficiency. From January to July, investment in ecological protection and environmental management industry increased by 34.1% year-on-year, education investment increased by 9%, health investment increased by 11.8%, and investment in culture, sports and entertainment industry increased by 17.6%.

The overall situation of consumption is still strong

In the data released in July, consumption has also attracted people's attention. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.0734 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.

Does this kind of volatility mean that the consumption power of China's economy is declining? Liu Aihua stressed that the fluctuation between 0.1-0.2 percentage points per month is relatively normal, while the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods is year-on-year and the current consumption structure changes very much. Big relationship. From the cumulative growth rate, the total retail sales of consumer goods in January-July increased by 9.3%, still within a reasonable range. Liu Aihua believes that in the first half of this year, per capita income growth of residents is still faster than per capita GDP growth, which has formed a strong support for the release of consumption potential. In the medium and long term, the expansion of China's consumer market and the upgrading of the consumption structure have not changed. The steady growth of consumption is supported and based.

"With the development of new economy, new industry and new business, the extension of consumption is also expanding. Especially the proportion of service consumption has increased significantly. However, the indicators under the current statistical system are difficult to quickly reflect these changes. For example, some commodities are between investment products and consumer goods. Products such as decoration building materials are often counted in consumption, but are largely affected by investment fluctuations, so this part also affects fluctuations in consumption indicators. Zhang Yongjun said.

Cong Liang pointed out that the growth of China's consumption may be subject to income on the one hand and supply. In the future, we will improve the system and mechanism for promoting consumption, comply with the trend of household consumption upgrading, and increase the supply of high-quality products and services. It is expected to increase the supply of medium and high-end products and meet the needs of consumption upgrading, so that the entire economy will form a virtuous circle.

The overall situation of consumption is still strong

Many experts stressed that dialectical view of data fluctuations can rationally grasp the economic structure.

Since the first quarter, the rapid decline in infrastructure investment growth has been the main reason for the decline in investment growth. In this regard, Cong Liang, Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission revealed that in the future, it will combine the acceleration of structural adjustment with the continuous expansion of domestic demand, further release the potential of the domestic market, and actively and orderly do a good job in expanding domestic demand.

In July, the national urban survey unemployment rate rebounded slightly. Does it mean that the employment situation has become severe? “The unemployment rate has risen in the short term for two reasons: First, the new graduates of the university will move to the labor market in the summer. The seasonal increase in employment pressure; the second is that some migrant workers return to their hometowns in the summer and then look for work after the re-finding of work, the frictional unemployment rises. These effects should not last too long." Zhang Yongjun said.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics survey of 25 summer grain producing provinces in the country, the total output of summer grain in the country this year was 138.72 million tons, a decrease of 3.06 million tons or 2.2% from the previous year. However, experts pointed out that despite a slight decline, this summer's summer crops are still a good harvest. Because the total output of summer grain in the country in 2017 was 140.52 million tons, it is the second highest in history. Although it is slightly lower than this, this harvest cannot be said to be bad. Moreover, due to weather and other factors, it is normal for food production to fluctuate.

Experts said that the key to judging the economic situation is to grasp the "potential" of development. From the supply side, China's economic transformation and upgrading momentum has been obvious this year, the economic structure has been continuously optimized, and the quality of supply has improved markedly. From the demand side, whether it is consumption, investment or export, there is a foundation for steady growth and stable economic growth. The basis and supporting conditions have not changed. Therefore, the fundamentals of China's sustained and stable economy will not change, and the trend of transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment will not change.